Get Ready for the Swoosh-Shaped Recovery, Davy’s Donnelly Says

Get Ready for the Swoosh-Shaped Recovery, Davy’s Donnelly Says
Get Ready for the Swoosh-Shaped Recovery, Davy’s Donnelly Says

(Bloomberg) — When the global economy recovery arrives, it may look more like a “swoosh” than a V, according to Davy, Ireland’s largest securities firm.

“It’s like a Nike-shaped swoosh,” Aidan Donnelly, head of equities at Davy’s private clients unit, said in an interview. The firm has assets worth over 14 billion euros ($15.4 billion) under management.

Global markets have plunged since the scale of the coronavirus crisis became clear. The MSCI All Country World Index tumbled some 34% from its February record high to its recent low on March 23. It has since recouped about a quarter of the loss. Against that backdrop, Davy is taking the longer view, temporarily adding stocks and going 5% overweight in equities, across a broad global index.

“The virus won’t last forever, the global economy will recover,” said Donough Kilmurray, Chief Investment Officer at the Dublin-based firm’s wealth management business. “A V-shaped recovery feels too optimistic, but an L-shaped view is probably too pessimistic.”

Strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. say most risk assets have seen their low points for the recession that’s gripped economies around the world. Yet others say the bottom is yet to come.

“There will be more wobbles ahead — the question is will they be as indiscriminate as previously?” Donnelly said.

“Our advice is; don’t try to be too clever. When they rebound comes, the money is going to come back into good quality names,” he said, mentioning companies like Caterpillar Inc., Inc. and Nike Inc.

Nike posted revenue of $10.1 billion for the three months ended Feb. 29, a period that included shutdowns across China, one of its key markets. E-commerce sales rose 35% to $3.8 billion last year, jumping another 36% in the most recent quarter. In China, online orders also rose 30% over the period.

“Look at Nike — even now, people are at home ordering trainers because they can’t do much else except exercise,” said Donnelly.